BluefoxToday blog : Las Vegas real estate market ready for a recovery?

That would be nice. But will it actually happen any time soon? Hard to say.

Lawrence Yun, the chief economist for the National Association for Realtors, or NAR, thinks it is just around the corner. In his opinion it could kick off in the latter half of this year. He was in town to speak to the group's Rocky Mountain Regional Conference and said that Southern Nevada will be in the forefront of the upcoming turnaround.

Prices here have plunged to levels that make home buying very affordable again, like it was early in the decade. Mortgage interest rates remain low, drawing borrowers to fill loan applications and buying homes. These are the two principal reasons to the currently strong resale market in Sin City, and have obviously favorably impressed Mr. Yun.

There is, though, a major hurdle that needs to be successfully cleared before a genuine recovery can start rolling across the Las Vegas housing scene. It's the foreclosure concern. If REOs, or bank-owned properties, keep flooding the MLS, they'll push any recovery further into the future. They'll feed the already high inventory that needs to be reduced to a level that makes market sense. Right now the existing home sales basically cancel out whatever new foreclosures get listed for sale. When they outnumber by a large margin and consistently the REOs, a lasting turnaround is imminent.

Las Vegas was knocked down early in this national mortgage and real estate mess and it could well be one of the first victims to be able stand up again and start doing something useful. Drawing on that theory, Mr. Yun's assessment might be right on target.