BluefoxToday blog : Mortgage market risk management basics

Mortgage market risk management basics

 The subprime home loan debacle sure has exposed the huge and complicated marketplace to careful scrutiny as to how it handles risk management. Sterling banking firms and mammoth investment organizations have lately lost untold amounts of money on U. S. mortgage-backed securities. When some of the better finance minds the world over get dragged into a mess like this there must be something fundamentally questionable about it all.

 Let's take a closer look. For residential mortgages, the current risk management function rests on two legs.

 The well-known element is the one where a weak borrower is charged a higher interest rate than the borrower with solid credit credentials. No one argues with that. This is so far pretty basic and widely supported. But what happens to the premium that is collected from the weak borrower is where the system's drawback becomes glaring. If there are no immediate losses to cover, the proceeds from the premium are generally counted as income by the mortgage security holders, the investors.

 So, under normal market conditions, many years will go by with mortgage defaults bouncing within a predictable loss range and the premiums will easily take care of any deficits. All the excess is entered into the books as income, year after year. Business is good and everybody is happy. But all of a sudden a major market upheaval, like the one we are seeing today, generates huge losses and since there are no reserves put aside, the investors are hit hard. The current premiums are far too little to bail them out and they are taking a serious bath.

  Mortgage insurance is the other leg. When a borrower has less than 20% down payment, he is required to buy mortgage insurance to cover the extra risk. The big difference here is that about .50 cents of each premium dollar collected goes to a reserve fund and it is there as a backup when the market hits the skids. During low default years the accounts grow substantially and are much better prepared to tackle any future tough years.

 The investor community could be planning some changes to the existing interest rate premium system, the obvious weak link here. It could introduce a still higher premium and then a fraction of that is put into a reserve account and the rest is kept as income, essentially preserving their current income stream. Mortgages, though, would now become more expensive to the borrower. Leaving the current risk premium intact but giving up some of it as a reserve would cut into their own profits. Probably a non-starter.

 Maybe they won't do anything. These market blow-outs happen every 20 years or so and they figure they can live with that.

 

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Provided by: 

Esko Kiuru
Mortgage, real estate and apartment industry analyst 

www.BluefoxToday.com - syndicated mortgage, housing and property management blog

eskokiuru@gmail.com
My cell: 702-499-1006

Comment balloon 8 commentsEsko Kiuru • May 20 2008 10:14PM

Comments

Hi Esko!

The market "blow-out" is a nightmare!! I suspect it will hit the 20's something generation the hardest, making homeownership almost impossible. When I first started selling, I sold mainly to first time home buyers, and we never did any of those risky loans where they're standing on one leg. In fact, I used to be a loan officer before I became a realtor, and I'd discourage my clients from those loans...

Posted by S W over 11 years ago

Esko,

I think what was happening was lenders were just lending money to people who really couldn't afford a home. People that were even late paying a $50 cell phone bill should never been able to buy a home with no money down. Too many unscrupulous way to do business.

Posted by Neal Bloom, Realtor CRS-Weston FL Real Estate (Brokered by eXp Realty LLC) over 11 years ago

Sara,

Maybe these market blow-outs are already figured into the investors' plans.

Posted by Esko Kiuru over 11 years ago

Neal,

Investors just got a bit too greedy by purchasing all sorts of no-money-down mortgage securities.

Posted by Esko Kiuru over 11 years ago

Esko - Thanks for the welcome. I will be back

Posted by Barrie Clulow (My Time Is My Own) over 11 years ago

I though Fannie MAy was coming out with an upfront premium that varried based on risk.

Posted by Laura Moore Godek (Laura Moore Godek, PC) over 11 years ago

Barrie,

Good to see you.

Posted by Esko Kiuru over 11 years ago

Laura,

Lots of changes are in the works, but this is what Fannie Mae is doing with the declining market issue.

Posted by Esko Kiuru over 11 years ago

Participate