BluefoxToday blog : Las Vegas Was Served a Double Dip - Are We Headed for a Triple?

Las Vegas Was Served a Double Dip - Are We Headed for a Triple?

A little over a year ago I wrote about the Las Vegas real estate market and the media buzz of the double dip in Las Vegas real estate prices.  

Well here is some follow up:  yes Las Vegas experienced a double dip.  The serving was not as big as 2008 however it was larger than I had expected.  I was only expecting single digits but we slipped into the double digits again.  What’s crazy with my predictions last September 2010 is that I predicted we would move to a stable market from a seller’s market.  The market flirted with stable market territory but never slipped into a stable market.

Las Vegas continues to defy odds makers with this rather odd real estate market.  I don’t think we will pull out of distressed territory (less than 50% short sale or REO listings & sales) for at least the next five years.  With that being said, as long as banks continue to drive pricing on homes for sale in the Las Vegas market with REO (bank owned) inventory – we could stay in a declining pattern for quite some time.

Most of our defaults are – no doubt – strategic.  Our economy is pitiful however many that can afford or are just “hanging on” decide to cut their losses and move on in life.  Right, wrong or indifferent:  I am not one to judge.

Here are the stats from our board GLVAR:

Sold August 2011:

  • SFR Units Sold UP +31.5% Year over Year
  • SFR Median Price DOWN -14.3% Year over Year
  • SFR Average Price DOWN -12.8% Year over Year
  • Condo/TH Units Sold UP +20.5% Year over Year
  • Condo/TH Median Price DOWN -16.4% Year over Year
  • Condo/TH Average Price DOWN -16.9% Year over Year

As you can see we are defying the law of supply and demand.  Buyers are rushing in to purchase our fire sale priced cheap home inventory.  HOWEVER (don’t you love “buts”?) The distressed inventory keeps coming in larger chunks even though buyers are gobbling it up!


Thanks,  Renée Burrows 702-580-1783 Broker/Owner, REALTOR®
 

 

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Comment balloon 17 commentsRenée Donohue~Home Photography • September 24 2011 09:26AM

Comments

Renee, I hope your market will improve and that it will not take five years. Good luck.

Posted by Gita Bantwal, REALTOR,ABR,CRS,SRES,GRI - Bucks County & Philadel (RE/MAX Centre Realtors) about 7 years ago

INteresting Renee..you sure have a different market there than in WI....take care!

Posted by Kristin Johnston - REALTOR®, Giving Back With Each Home Sold! (RE/MAX Realty Center ) about 7 years ago

Renee,

Your predictions sound inline with the FED's recent policy for the next 2 plus years. Considering the demand that fueled LV's housing build up I would like to see what happens with an improved jobs picture.

Great to see one of the Boyz in the picture,

Steve

Posted by Steve, Joel & Steve A. Chain (Chain Real Estate Investments & Mortgage, Steve & Joel Chain) about 7 years ago

Renee,

A very difficult situation to deal with when you are a Realtor. I really hate to hear this kind of news but as they say it is what is. ( overused phrase I might add) I always cringe when I hear banks are driving the market prices. Hang in there as soon or later these problems have to dissipate ( I hope). The front page of WSJ was saying earlier this week atht real estate across the US will not recover until 2016(?) or later. These WSJ folks however love to be negative about our business.

Posted by Robert Bob Gilbert, Your Katy TX ( West of Houston) Real Estate Expert (Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Anderson Properties) about 7 years ago

Renee, you do put out great market reports, just wish the news was better for Las Vegas!     Sounds like a great time for investors to purchase.     Those gamblers could have their OWN PROPERTY when visiting SIN CITY!

Posted by Joan Cox, Denver Real Estate - Selling One Home at a Time (Metro Brokers - House to Home, Inc. - Denver Real Estate - 720-231-6373) about 7 years ago

Hello Renee,

wish you the best in real estate business. It is tough here, but not that tough as in your city.

Have a great weekend.

Posted by Tatyana Makarov, Your Greater Hartford Area Realtor (Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage) about 7 years ago

Renee: I was in Vegas this week and was shocked as to the volume of people downtown Wed. and Thursday. This would have to be the busiest I have seen downtown midweek in a couple of years. Maybe if the tourist and convention trade would pick up it could help the turn aroun sooner rather than later.

Posted by Surprise Arizona Realtor Jim Braun Sun City Grand Active Adult Communities, Surprise AZ real estate Phoenix West Valley (Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage Jim Braun Sun City Grand Az ) about 7 years ago

Renee - how is the job market in Vegas ..... is the current economy affecting the Casinos ..... are they laying off, are spinoff industries hurting as well. If they are this could be impacting your real estate market.

Posted by Kathy Clulow, Trusted For Experience - Respected For Results (RE/MAX All-Stars Realty Inc. Brokerage) about 7 years ago

Renee...If a crazier market than yours exists, I haven't seen it.  Good analysis of the current situation and where you believe the Las Vegas real estate market is headed.

Posted by Anita Clark, Realtor - Homes for Sale in Warner Robins GA (ColdwellBanker SSK Realtors ~ 478.960.8055) about 7 years ago

Renee - Very interesting and I'm not surprised that Las Vegas continues to be a sellers market with all the REO's.

Posted by Michelle Gibson, REALTOR (Hansen Real Estate Group Inc. ) about 7 years ago

Renee, good read here. You are right about accepting what is. What else can we do? Hang in there. I love the picture. Your dog? Precious.

Deb

Posted by Deb Brooks (Brooks Prime Properties Wichita Falls Texas) about 7 years ago

Renee

That would make me pretty nervous. I hope it stabalizes one day soon

Posted by Tom Braatz Waukesha County Real Estate 262-377-1459, Waukesha County Realtor Real Estate agent. SOLD! (Coldwell Banker) about 7 years ago

Renee, The Las Vegas market is very much different from what we are seeing in the Long Island market. Our buyers are out and about and are buying, and we just had a bidding war on a regular home sale where it was sold for over asking price!

Posted by Lawrence "Larry" & Sheila Agranoff. Cell: 631-805-4400, Long Island Condo & Home Sale Specialists (The Top Team @ Charles Rutenberg Realty 255 Executive Dr, Plainview NY 11803) about 7 years ago

Renee~

 

Interesting and informative post...I always look forward to hearing the latest and updated news from our neck o' the woods.

Posted by . 4Terra Land Brokers .. 828-776-0779 Asheville NC, What's Most Important to YOU? Call(828)-776-0779 ( REAL ESTATE RESOURCES & NETWORK ) about 7 years ago

Thank you everyone for the comments!

Steve:  If we could stop the bleeding with the oversupply of rentals with an improved jobs picture (bringing more residents in like we did "yesterday") I think we would see less decline.  It's kind of weird how this is all playing out!

Robert:  I will definitely take 2016 over what I believe (could be close to 10 years for recovery!)

Jim:  We definitely have the bodies here (tourism) but they aren't spending the amount of money they used to.  We used to be fueled by "the corporate card" for conventions.  With credit markets tightening across the board (not just mortgages) people are less inclined to spend money when they have to pay cash.

Kathy:  GOOD QUESTION!  THis is definitely part of the problem.  Our unemployment rate bounces between 13-15%.  This is mostly due to laid of construction industry workers.

Larry & Sheila:  We see bidding wars too and homes going for above list price - however when they are priced well below sold comps and the new sale price is still well below sold comps - it is painful!

Posted by Renée Donohue~Home Photography, Western Michigan Real Estate Photographer (Savvy Home Pix) about 7 years ago

Renee,  I would say half the calls I receive are from borrowers who can pay, and simply do not want to because it does not make financial sense to do so.  The lenders unwillingness to restructure loans for those who can pay is forcing the "strategic" defaults. 

Posted by Kathleen Daniels, San Jose Homes for Sale-Probate & Trust Specialist (KD Realty - 408.972.1822) about 7 years ago

Renee,

Doing a possible triple is totally out there, no one would have foreseen that. But the market forces are what they are.

Posted by Esko Kiuru about 7 years ago

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