BluefoxToday blog : Shadow Inventory Remains a Substantial Risk to the Housing Market

Shadow Inventory Remains a Substantial Risk to the Housing Market

An article on MarketWatch describes how the “shadow inventory” remains a substantial risk to the housing market.  The article reports that S&P analysts have observed that it is taking longer for the housing market to absorb foreclosed homes than first anticipated, and that the number of foreclosures “may be a drag on prices for a few more years.”

 

The glut of foreclosures is projected to hit cities such as New York particular hard, where it could take as long as 10 years for the market to return to “normal.”  And while other areas will clear much faster, foreclosures will place downward pressure on prices for several more years.

 

A separate report on HousingWire from Amherst Securities Group said “the market is not taking into consideration the high likelihood of potential defaults on performing or re-performing mortgages when estimating future losses on these loans” and that “borrowers with substantially negative equity are very vulnerable to default." 

 

While the news is not encouraging, it's information that we must take into account when making our plans for 2011 and beyond.

 

The Housing Guru: The expert source for all your housing questions—now featuring daily updates of Today’s Housing News

 

 

Comment balloon 8 commentsJohn Mulkey • January 04 2011 08:43AM

Comments

Thanks John for putting somethings back into perspective - we have work to do... inventory to clean up.

cheers

Nor Yeretsian

Posted by Nor Yeretsian, Envoy Capitol Realty Inc., Brokerage Toronto (Envoy Capitol Realty Inc.) almost 8 years ago

The glut on one end, financing, has caused a glut on the other end, inventory!  Gee, what's the solution here?

Um, no gluts?

Posted by Jay Markanich, Home Inspector - servicing all Northern Virginia (Jay Markanich Real Estate Inspections, LLC) almost 8 years ago

Nor - As long as we're aware of the problem we can work on solutions.

Jay - Perhaps a job for Billy Jays--"Glut be Gone."

Posted by John Mulkey, Housing Guru (TheHousingGuru.com) almost 8 years ago

That's only taking current market forces into account. If energy (oil) prices continue to rise, it will cause a drag on the entire economy.

Posted by Jon Budish (Resident Realty) almost 8 years ago

Jon - You're right, and there are several additional possibilities that could put housing back in the "tank."

Posted by John Mulkey, Housing Guru (TheHousingGuru.com) almost 8 years ago

Or Get Rid 'O Yer Glut!  Gee, it works for me, but I can't speak for him...

Posted by Jay Markanich, Home Inspector - servicing all Northern Virginia (Jay Markanich Real Estate Inspections, LLC) almost 8 years ago

John,

Vegas is likely to be in the same boat with New York regarding the real estate market's return to normal. Could be even longer.

Posted by Esko Kiuru over 7 years ago

Esko - Vegas suffered much more than most.

Posted by John Mulkey, Housing Guru (TheHousingGuru.com) over 7 years ago

Participate