BluefoxToday blog : Las Vegas underwater homeowners to float by 2020? It's possible

Las Vegas underwater homeowners to float by 2020? It's possible

Angel Park Golf Club, Las Vegas, NVMany Southern Nevada - including Mountains Edge, Summerlin, North Las Vegas, Henderson, Canyon Gate and Spanish Trail - mortgage borrowers are still dealing with the effects of the great real estate meltdown. Short sale has recently become a more acceptable avenue for home loan banks to address the lingering issue of delinquency, giving people a somewhat more palatable way out of a tight spot. Despite that, high mortgage foreclosure filings continue clouding the sandy landscape of Las Vegas valley. The once in a lifetime housing upheaval is by no means over and done with yet.

Sin City's homeowners have watched in horror as property values have taken a perilous plunge over the cliff, slamming them so low that scores are now in negative equity. An altogether regrettable situation. They are now spending quality time wondering about the future of housing here. More specifically, when the underwater label would be ceremoniously blacked out from the local real estate vocabulary.

First American CoreLogic, a real estate research boutique, has taken the brave step of trying to answer that tricky question. It took a close look at ten markets, one of which was Las Vegas, in order to arrive at a time frame when the average mortgage recipient would break surface and again breathe fresh air. It used unpaid principal balances, short-term housing forecasts, a standard measure of long-term value trends, amortization and predictably some other exotic proprietary data to make it happen.

Las Vegas real estate market has a long way to go according to FACL findings. The average mortgage borrower in Southern Nevada will break even by 2020, ten years from now, it says. The valley's price erosion has been very uneven. Some areas have suffered only mild losses while others have seen multiple G-force dives. It's the latter category that will likely linger in the netherworld well past 2020. These subdivisions generally were built right in the middle of the bubble when new home prices in particular were shamelessly hiked just about monthly, if not faster, steadily hauling them to bizarre heights. Buyers were undeterred, as were mortgage lenders, feeding the frenzy that soon made the term underwater, or upside down, a household word.

For some Southern Nevada real estate owners it will unfortunately be a long road to salvation, for others likely under ten years. It's all about the location.




Provided by: 

Esko Kiuru
Mortgage, real estate and apartment industry analyst - syndicated mortgage, housing and property management blog
My cell: 702-499-1006

Comment balloon 13 commentsEsko Kiuru • March 26 2010 03:19PM


I find it interesting that someone would go out on the line and 'call' when the values will rise to past levels. Thanks for sharing this very interesting and informative post.

Posted by Vickie Nagy, Vickie Jean the Palm Springs Condo Queen (Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate) about 9 years ago

Esko: Good thoughts here. Thank you! I agree with you. For some the wait won't be as long as for others. Take care.

Posted by Paul McFadden, Pest Control, Seattle, WA. (Paratex) about 9 years ago

The Nevada and Miami markets are so similar they could be twins.  Good content Esko.  As usual =)

Posted by Maggie Dokic | Miami, FL | 305.81.HOUSE (46873), GREEN, CDPE, SFR, Pinecrest | Palmetto Bay | (eXp Realty LLC) about 9 years ago

Esko I know that it seems like you guys are in a bottomless black hole, but one thing about the market, you can't control it and you certainly can't predict it accurately.  The only sure thing is that it will do what it wants, and is full of surprises.  And who knows a surprise might be in store for Las Vegas.

Posted by George Souto, Your Connecticut Mortgage Expert (George Souto NMLS #65149 FHA, CHFA, VA Mortgages) about 9 years ago

Esko  In 34 years as a realtor this is the longest and worst downturn I've ever seen

Posted by Karen Kruschka, - "My Experience Isn't Expensive - It's PRICELESS" (RE/MAX Executives) about 9 years ago

I have no idea nor can I say when we can be out of the woods.  Talk from major servicers about Principle Reductions would be a great way to get us ahead sooner rather than later!

Posted by Renée Donohue~Home Photography, Western Michigan Real Estate Photographer (Savvy Home Pix) about 9 years ago


These research shops collect handsome fees for doing this sort of thing.

Posted by Esko Kiuru about 9 years ago


Older, established neighborhoods escaped major damage and likely will recover first.

Posted by Esko Kiuru about 9 years ago


Twins is a good way to describe our two struggling markets, partners in real estate crime.

Posted by Esko Kiuru about 9 years ago


We sure could use one of those positive surprises for a change. We are due.

Posted by Esko Kiuru about 9 years ago


This easily qualifies for an once-in-a-lifetime label.

Posted by Esko Kiuru about 9 years ago


Principal reductions might eventually become accepted as the best way to resolve this mess.

Posted by Esko Kiuru about 9 years ago
That saves me. Thanks for being so sesnible!
Posted by Moon almost 8 years ago