In small steps real estate talk in Southern Nevada - with communities like Summerlin, Mountains Edge, Charleston Heights, Spanish Trail, Henderson and Anthem - is turning to recovery looming on the horizon. 2009 statistics showed that it does have a pulse as investors descended in droves on the scene to gobble up property for rentals in the lower half of the market. First-time home buyers were also active, enjoying low mortgage rates, nice tax benefits and attractive prices.
Prominent Las Vegas housing industry analyst, Home Builders Research, is cautiously optimistic about the market's direction this year. Resale home prices are to increase 3.3%, or $4,000 in 2010, go to $127,000, it says. Moreover, existing home sales should reach 45,000 units, which is about the same as what happened in 2009. These estimates mirror that that the bottom has been reached in the long and unkind real estate slide and there is a moderate upturn in the works. If mortgage money remains as affordable as it now is - even though underwriting guidelines seem to be tightening - this scenario has a chance.
That's one side of the coin, however. The other side looks a bit different.
The International Builders' Show that recently concluded its annual run here in Las Vegas featured several speakers who of course took turns speaking about the state of the tattered housing market. Some of them were bearish on Southern Nevada. Mortgage foreclosures will keep rising in 2010 due to the weak economy and prices will take a cue from that and slide down, not by much as there barely is any room to go lower. Job growth here remains gloomy at least through this year and possibly goes into next as well, putting a painful dent on demand.
Who is right on Las Vegas real estate market's near future? Everybody and nobody. Both camps base their projections on available data, but how all that is interpreted can vary. What likely will happen is something between these two views. That is, the bottom is here, or near, and the market will bounce along there for a while, trying to find smoother stretches of road that would then give better traction. Any lasting recovery, though, will be slow.
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Provided by:
Esko Kiuru
Mortgage Consultant, Father, Golfer, Skier, Beer Aficionado
www.eskokiuru.com - complete mortgage platform
www.BluefoxToday.com - syndicated mortgage and real estate blog
esko@eskokiuru.com
My cell: 702-499-1006
Home loans in Southern Nevada - including Las Vegas, Summerlin, Henderson, Green Valley, Mountains Edge, North Las Vegas, Southern Highlands, Anthem, Boulder City, Pahrump and Mesquite - and all of Nevada.
Esko: Thanks for the update. It's nice to hear some positive news; I know you guys got creamed. I agree with you. Growth will probably be pretty slow now for the next few years. In fact, I read that up to 50% of the mortgage companies nationwide will quit this year as originations slow. Only the strong will survive. I wish you well!
Let's keep our fingers crossed for continued stability! While January's numbers are way down from December, they are way up from last January!
Esko, well if I had to pick between two unknowns, I will always go with the more positive one :) :) :)
Paul,
As long as we can stabilize our market, that would be great.
Renee,
Hopefully January's numbers were just a bad dream.
George,
That's the way I look at it, too.
I agree growth will probably be pretty slow now for the next few years.half of the mortgage companies nationwide will quit this year as originations slow. Thanks for the update.
Jessie,
That's how it's shaping up when you look at the real estate market today.
Just stopping by to invite you to the ActiveRain Super Bowl Party. Stop by if you get a chance. Geaux Saints!
Russel,
Thanx for the invite. I'll do that.