BluefoxToday blog : John Mulkey, Housing Guru (TheHousingGuru.com)

Strategic Default in Reverse

 

An article in the Chicago Tribune describes how some mortgage servicers are exercising strategic default in reverse and are abandoning properties after determining that the costs of foreclosure are greater than the underlying value of the property.  Often in distressed neighborhoods, such properties only add to the decline of communities, as vacant houses become eyesores and havens for criminal activity.  Chicago area foreclosures increased by 20% in 2010, only adding to lower home values and further blight.   

 

Home in ForeclosureThe Tribune article describes the “stewardship relationship” that exists between borrower and lender and how certain loan servicers are failing to live up to their responsibilities as “stewards” following default.  (I find it interesting that lenders would ever be considered stewards, for in reviewing the behavior of many during the housing crisis, it appeared it was always about the money.)  Good stewards take their responsibilities seriously, when it’s about the money, stewardship isn’t involved. 

 

For two years now, we’ve read of the moral responsibility of borrowers to honor their mortgage obligations; and many have been critical when borrowers made the “choice” to walk away.  It seems ironic that some of the very banks that have criticized homeowners for walking away are now choosing the same option, and solely for financial reasons.  Regardless of who is walking away, it is always about the money.  

 

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19 commentsJohn Mulkey, Housing Guru • January 13 2011 06:53PM

Shadow Inventory Remains a Substantial Risk to the Housing Market

An article on MarketWatch describes how the “shadow inventory” remains a substantial risk to the housing market.  The article reports that S&P analysts have observed that it is taking longer for the housing market to absorb foreclosed homes than first anticipated, and that the number of foreclosures “may be a drag on prices for a few more years.”

 

The glut of foreclosures is projected to hit cities such as New York particular hard, where it could take as long as 10 years for the market to return to “normal.”  And while other areas will clear much faster, foreclosures will place downward pressure on prices for several more years.

 

A separate report on HousingWire from Amherst Securities Group said “the market is not taking into consideration the high likelihood of potential defaults on performing or re-performing mortgages when estimating future losses on these loans” and that “borrowers with substantially negative equity are very vulnerable to default." 

 

While the news is not encouraging, it's information that we must take into account when making our plans for 2011 and beyond.

 

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8 commentsJohn Mulkey, Housing Guru • January 04 2011 08:43AM

I Wish I Could Restore My Home’s Value

woman wishing for changeI wish the economy were better, and I wish I could restore my home’s value.  If only wishing could make it so, if only wishing could restore our economy.  If just by thinking a few happy thoughts and ignoring the realities of the most serious recession in decades, we could bring the housing market back, bring financial stability to the markets, stop the declines in employment; we could all live happily ever after.  But remaking our economy isn’t as easy as wishful or positive thinking. 

 

And while we like to point fingers at our government, to irresponsible homeowners, to those nasty banks, to all those entities that collaborated in collapsing our economy; our problems are due to the collective actions of a nation addicted to debt and blinded to the consequences.  With few exceptions, we’re all responsible and for obvious reasons.  Few of us called our congressmen and demanded they bring sanity to the housing market when prices were exploding beyond reason; and few questioned the logic of offering mortgages to anyone, regardless of their ability to repay.  We gratefully accepted the help in making our home more valuable, our businesses more prosperous; and we turned a blind eye to problems we hoped wouldn’t affect us individually. 

 

Today many are still unwilling to admit culpability and continue to ignore their responsibility to fully understand what has happened.  Few seek to analyze the steps that must be taken to correct our problems, and attempt to ignore the pain of overindulgence. 

 

During the past decade our complacency and intemperance weakened our economy, opening the door to a virus that wiped out much of our nation’s wealth; now we must take our medicine.  However, the doctor (our government) cannot come in and give us a pill (print trillions of dollars) that will make things better in the morning.  Just as with serious illness, this problem will take time to repair; and we will have to spend a period in painful, but necessary therapy.  In the end we may recover, but it won’t happen just because we wished it so.  It will come because we acknowledged both our problems and the measures necessary to bring about a lasting recovery; only then will our economy gain the stability that has been eroding for decades.   

 

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13 commentsJohn Mulkey, Housing Guru • December 31 2010 04:20PM

Unemployment and Why Housing Continues to Struggle

Unemployment and Why Housing Continues to Struggle

Each month when the Labor Department releases the statistics on unemployment and job creations, the numbers often do little more than confuse. Some months it looks as if they’re improving and others they seem to reflect a recession that won’t leave.

 

The employment numbers as reported often have little significance in the short-term, as they do sometimes fluctuate wildly; and they don’t always paint an accurate picture. For instance, while this month’s report showed an increase in the unemployment number from 9.6% to 9.8%, it only includes those who are actively seeking jobs. Those who have become so discouraged that they’ve given up their job search aren’t included—and that makes for a much higher number.

 

For a better understanding of unemployment it’s helpful to take a look at the overall trends, allowing us to see where we are and where we need to go in order to be in a legitimate recovery. The graph below from Calculated Risk helps provide that view. It shows just how far employment has fallen relative to other recessions and provides a good picture of where we need to be in order for the housing market to begin growing again.

graph of unemployment

What we see is that job losses during the current recession (I know it’s supposed to have ended, but the numbers tell a different story) were far more severe and show us further from recovery than any recession of the past 60 years. And the sad reality for millions of those unemployed is that their former jobs will never return. The ultimate impact upon the housing market has been and will continue to be dramatic; a robust housing recovery seems more than unlikely—more likely, impossible.

 

Sure, some sectors of the economy have seen improvement, and others will begin to improve; but the recovery will be slow and painful. In those areas where jobs are plentiful, the housing market will seem almost normal. However, the overall economy will continue to be plagued by the fallout from higher than normal unemployment, and the housing recovery will be grievously slow.

 

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14 commentsJohn Mulkey, Housing Guru • December 03 2010 01:36PM

This Foreclosure Crisis Just Won't Go Away

While banks have repeatedly assured us that their foreclosure problems, commonly referred to as “ForeclosureGate,” are nothing more than “paperwork” problems, it seems this foreclosure crisis just won’t go away. And with 50 states’ attorneys general continuing to investigate the matter, more problems can be expected to surface.

 

A story on Bloomberg describes how an employee at Bank of America is reported to have testified that promissory notes were routinely held by Countrywide Financial Corp., now owned by BofA, even after such loans had been bundled and sold. And while BofA has denied the accuracy of the testimony, lawyers on both sides are scrambling to uncover the facts—facts which could severely impact the standing of thousands of foreclosure actions, as well as bolster the cases of investors demanding that BofA repurchase mortgage-backed securities.

 

In a previous POST I pointed out the deceptive practices that have come to light as the foreclosure crisis unfolded, and this story only causes more to question the actions and statements of the country’s major banks.

 

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7 commentsJohn Mulkey, Housing Guru • December 01 2010 11:16AM

Foreclosure Scandal Demonstrates The Value of Owner’s Title Insurance

Many homebuyers, eager to reduce their expenses during the purchase process, question the need for purchasing owner’s title insurance. After all, the bank’s attorney has already researched the title for the bank, how much risk could there be? However, the recent allegations that the country’s major mortgage lenders improperly processed foreclosure documents, and in some cases, actually forged signatures or made false statements, have demonstrated the value of title insurance.

 

The foreclosure issue is just one of many potential scenarios which consumers and attorneys cannot identify in advance, and the problem should serve as an incentive for homebuyers to ALWAYS purchase owner’s title insurance. The few hundred dollars spent may not only save thousands in future legal costs, but just might save the buyer’s home.

 

The Housing Guru: The expert source for all your housing questions—now featuring daily updates of Today’s Housing News

13 commentsJohn Mulkey, Housing Guru • October 11 2010 10:10AM

The Foreclosure Scandal Has Become Pandemic

doctor holding globeAs more mortgage companies “fess-up” regarding their apparent fraudulent processing of foreclosure documents, the foreclosure scandal has become pandemic.  And while the early response from many, including myself, was that this issue would soon be swept under the rug, with no benefit for struggling homeowners, and allowing banks to proceed with foreclosures, the problem has exploded in significance.

 

Attorneys and state courts around the country have begun to question the manner in which banks have processed thousands of foreclosures each month, and numerous errors have been discovered.  Court documents have revealed the casual manner in which foreclosures were often allowed to proceed even while homeowners were allegedly being considered for loan modification and in a few cases when the owner was not in default on their mortgage.  Ensuing investigations and testimony have revealed a foreclosure process that lacked proper verification and review by bank officials.  The issue is not about “flawed paperwork,” “oversights,” or “errors,” but whether the nation’s largest banks considered themselves above the law.

 

 

The foreclosure scandal raises several questions:

 

What caused this problem to surface?  Since most foreclosures aren’t contested, the lack of proper documentation has rarely been an issue.  Now, however, with banks needing to process thousands of foreclosures each month, it appears that many ignored the legal requirements and became little more than “foreclosure mills.”  Their failure to properly review documents compounded the errors, and the resulting number of homeowners contesting their foreclosures exploded.  As attorneys and judges reviewed the practices of these “foreclosure mills,” the entire system has come into question.  Ultimately, it appears that banks were treating the foreclosure process as carelessly as they did the original application for a mortgage.   

 

Why would banks knowingly commit fraud?  In order to expedite the initial packaging and sale of the various mortgage instruments that helped create the housing crisis, the mortgage industry more than a decade ago created Mortgage Electronic Registration Systems (MERS), to speed up the transfer of mortgages between financial institutions.  Considered by many to be the industry’s first step in ignoring the requirements for the proper transfer of mortgage documents, including the payment of local filing fees; when first established, the actions of MERS were rarely questioned, and the lack of accountability may have emboldened banks to more serious and more blatant violations.

 

What are the ultimate ramifications for both the housing market and the overall economy?  Regardless of reports to the contrary, many banks, their books still overflowing with “toxic assets,” teeter on the brink of insolvency.  If foreclosures are delayed for a significant amount of time, the U.S. could face the very real possibility of another banking crisis, and the potential for another bailout.  Additionally, lawsuits will continue for years, making stabilization of the housing market nearly impossible.  

 

What about the issue of title problems?  Some title companies have already announced their refusal to insure title on foreclosed homes.  And buyers, concerned about title issues, may simply avoid purchasing foreclosed properties until they are confident that such problems have been resolved.  Additionally, those who have recently purchased foreclosed homes may find title to the property clouded by this crisis. 

 

Who will pay for this mess?  While other issues surrounding this controversy are more complex, the answer to this question seems clear.  The U.S. taxpayer will almost certainly bear a significant portion of the ultimate costs.  With almost all mortgage loans backed by the U.S. government, taxpayers will, once more, be on the hook for government negligence and the banks’ avarice.  Whether or not we agree is immaterial; it is far too late to change the rules in this game.

 

Will extended delays in foreclosure further damage a fragile housing market?  There are more than 2 million homes currently in or facing foreclosure; a moratorium will mean the owner can’t be evicted and the bank can’t sell the home.  Then, once a solution is reached—and we can only speculate when that might be—the housing market could face a potential flood of additional inventory.   Not only will the market suffer, but there will be millions spent in sorting through the confusion, while defaulting owners are allowed to remain in their homes rent-free.  The potential costs are staggering.

 

What are the political ramifications of this problem?  Nothing of this magnitude comes without political consequences, and the potential in this case could impact both the economy and housing for decades.  Politicians will attempt to capitalize on the issue as a means to promote their party’s agenda, and that could impact the ultimate overhaul of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and the future of government involvement in home financing. 

 

How can this problem be resolved?  I suspect we’ll have a complete moratorium of foreclosures, whether voluntary or imposed, that will seek to find ways to move ahead with foreclosure, and congress may be pressured to legislate a solution to the problem.  With several states having initiated lawsuits against lenders or demanding that foreclosures be temporarily suspended, a national moratorium seems inevitable.  At some point, however, foreclosure must take place, and the U.S. taxpayer will pay for the majority of the losses.  Rather than creating TARP II, bailing out the banks for a second time, or doing nothing and allowing taxpayers to pick up the bill through Fannie and Freddie, we could finally create a system of meaningful modifications.  Doing so would lessen the burden on taxpayers and begin to stabilize the housing market and overall economy.  Regardless of the solution chosen, there will be no “free lunch” for anyone; the ultimate choice is just whether we’ll have burgers or bread and water.

 

What I’m proposing is not a means for homeowners who fail to make mortgage payments to get a “pass,” allowing them to remain in their home without paying, but neither is it a way for banks to ignore the law and the consequences of their reckless lending practices.  Banks and their attorneys created the mortgage instruments in question, and they forced borrowers to comply.  Those same banks should be compelled to work with homeowners who demonstrate a desire to remain in their homes; and if a solution isn’t possible, they must follow both the spirit and letter of the law when proceeding with foreclosure.  Allowing them to do otherwise is to ignore and harm the very legal system intended to offer protections to all of us.

 

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104 commentsJohn Mulkey, Housing Guru • October 09 2010 10:34AM

Home Ownership: Satisfying Dream or Ghoulish Nightmare?

haunted houseDuring the past 3 years our country has fallen to its economic knees due to a crisis in our banking system brought about, in large part, by the collapse of the U.S. housing market. And while there are several complex precipitating factors to the current recession, some of which may never be fully revealed, the concept of home ownership has become to be viewed as a villain, for some a ghoulish nightmare, and for many, a less desirable goal for the future.

 

With millions of homes lost to foreclosure and millions more worth less than their mortgage, many are questioning whether owning a home should have been designated “an American dream.” Some, in fact, seem to view their homes as thieves who have stolen much of our nation’s wealth as well as the dignity of a large group of its citizens.

 

This questioning of the value of home ownership has been precipitated by continual waves of constantly changing headlines and news stories, each attempting to eclipse the last. A recent cover on Time Magazine featured an article, “The Case Against Homeownership,” describing ownership’s “dark side.” The article describes the damage done to individuals and to the economy as a result of home purchases.

 

However, home ownership hasn’t changed; and it didn’t create the current crisis. Of itself, it has no “dark side.” That view came about as a result of poor guidance from our “leaders,” combined with the greed of bankers and Wall Street firms, drooling over the prospects of billions in profits. And millions of consumers contributed to that view by abandoning rational thought and readily accepting the notion that a home purchase could be an automatic ticket to “Easy Street.” Just like crazed “investors” in the late 1920’s, we ignored the adage, “If it looks too good to be true” . . .

 

Housing implies a home. For some that may be a rental, for others a purchase. And though a purchased home does come with some advantages, it also comes with responsibilities. And the first responsibility is to determine the logic and prudence of that purchase. Sure, buying a home may serve as a way to create a forced savings account. But, it’s not a typical investment. Similar to an account at your local bank, the home account may offer little interest. Studies comparing home prices over the past hundred years show that, on average, those prices follow the rate of inflation; at times up; sometimes down, but generally following the inflation trend line.

 

The important point for us to remember is that HOME is still the same as always; its only dark side is one created in ignorance and greed. Ownership is not inherently sinister or damaging to the economy; though the irrational behavior of owners and enablers can make it appear so. Today’s home is no less desirable and comes with no more risk than it has in the past—as long as we continue to exercise good judgment and rational thinking.

 

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18 commentsJohn Mulkey, Housing Guru • September 13 2010 03:27PM

Foreclosures Are More Than A Financial Problem

Since 2006 Americans have seen the number of foreclosures rise, and the economic damage has been overwhelming, but foreclosures are not just a financial problem. Recognizing the severity of the crisis, the government has put forth several initiatives, some providing aid to banks, their balance sheets deluged with billions in foreclosure inventory, and other plans attempted to help struggling homeowners remain in their homes. However, little has been to actually alleviate the problem, and foreclosures continue at a record pace.

 

Not only did the government’s efforts fail to provide relief, they served to anger many who felt wronged by such plans. “Kick the deadbeats out,” some have suggested. “I didn’t use my home as an ATM, and I pay my bills.” The anger, often directed at those facing foreclosure was for many, I believe, frustration with the government and big banks for their complicity in allowing the problem to reach a crisis level, and for their failures to properly address it. But the problem goes beyond who is at fault and ultimately reaches each of us.

 

foreclosed homeRegardless of whom we feel to be culpable, and whether or not we empathize with the actual victims of foreclosure, the result of having millions of additional vacant homes could create social and economic problems of immense proportions, the effects of which may be felt for decades. Each foreclosure has a direct impact on local home values, and each abandoned home creates an environment for crime and blight. Municipalities, their budgets already strained by the recession, will struggle to provide adequate fire and police protection. Funding for local schools will suffer, local businesses will fail, and the character of some neighborhoods will be forever changed.

 

While many of the foreclosures may be purchased by investors, they’re frequently bought at bargain-basement prices and will either be offered as rental units or sold for quick profits. In either case, the character of the neighborhood may ultimately be altered.

 

Of course there are exceptions—some neighborhoods will see no adverse effects—but the number of locations that will be or have already been dramatically altered is sufficient to have a long-term social impact, the results of which may not surface for several years. We need to solve the foreclosure crisis; and as much as possible we need to keep neighborhoods intact. Foreclosures are more than a financial problem and failure to address that problem will cost much more in the end.

 

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15 commentsJohn Mulkey, Housing Guru • September 04 2010 10:43AM

Should Anyone Buy a Home In Today's Market?

Recent headlines, as well as some of my own blog posts, have some consumers wondering: "Should anyone buy a home in today's market?" And the answer is a definite, but qualified, almost enthusiastic, yes. An article in the NY Times, points out some of the obvious benefits of home ownership:

● A mortgage can be a type of forced savings

● Home owners don't have to deal with the difficult or fickle landlords who may decide to sell or experience foreclosure

● Rental units may not be available in the area in which you wish to live.

 

And in previous posts I've pointed out that home ownership can provide:

● An anchor to the community (Owners are more involved in community, civic, and political affairs)

● Stability (Owners move less often and are more likely to develop relationships with neighbors)

● Freedom (Owners can customize or modify their accommodations as they wish and as often as they wish and will reap the financial benefits of their improvements)

● Pride of ownership (Becoming a home owner provides a sense of accomplishment)

● Security (Neighborhoods filled with owners have less crime, and strangers do not have keys to your home)

● Homes provide a place for family activities (Backyard swing sets, tree houses, or room for family pets)

 

And while the recession has placed the focus upon the financial risks associated with a home purchase, when purchased wisely, homes can be financially beneficial. Because of the leveraged factor, a shrewd purchase sometimes offers significant returns. Unless you are an investor, however, homes should not be purchased for investment potential.

 

Should anyone buy a home in today’s market? Yes, but not everyone who is qualified. There are numerous considerations, and for some a purchase could prove disastrous. However, those who wish to own a home and who are financially stable should certainly consider their options; and having an experienced buyers’ agent to help locate the best home in the best location, provide expert guidance through the complex purchase process is essential.

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13 commentsJohn Mulkey, Housing Guru • August 28 2010 07:24AM