Here's a 12-month forecast for housing values in the top 100 U.S. markets as reported by CNN Money. McAllen, Texas, leads the way with a predicted gain of 9.8%, followed by Tulsa and El Paso. Congratulations. On the opposite end of the scale, at the very end, sits Las Vegas. The annual decline is set at 8.9%. Our nearest competitors are Miami and Phoenix.
I wonder what type of forecasting models were used to arrive at these figures, but what I keep reading in the local media gives you a somewhat different picture. Economic fundamentals in the valley seem pretty sound. Job growth was 3% in January, unemployment is under 5% and gaming revenue was off slightly. New home construction is the only major sector in the economy that is quite weak right now. Still, 5,000 to 6,000 people move here every month. Nice growth numbers.
Market correction is under way, that's a fact. And it's healthy after that joyride. Median price appreciation has come to a screeching halt. There are pockets in the valley where house values have gone up a little and other pockets where they've dropped. But overall, I don't see a 9% decline. The economy is just too strong.