BluefoxToday blog : Esko Kiuru

Vegas home prices to decline?

Here's a 12-month forecast for housing values in the top 100 U.S. markets as reported by CNN Money. McAllen, Texas, leads the way with a predicted gain of 9.8%, followed by Tulsa and El Paso. Congratulations. On the opposite end of the scale, at the very end, sits Las Vegas. The annual decline is set at 8.9%. Our nearest competitors are Miami and Phoenix.

I wonder what type of forecasting models were used to arrive at these figures, but what I keep reading in the local media gives you a somewhat different picture. Economic fundamentals in the valley seem pretty sound. Job growth was 3% in January, unemployment is under 5% and gaming revenue was off slightly. New home construction is the only major sector in the economy that is quite weak right now.  Still, 5,000 to 6,000 people  move here every month. Nice growth numbers.

Market correction is under way, that's a fact. And it's healthy after that joyride. Median price appreciation has come to a screeching halt. There are pockets in the valley where house values have gone up a little and other pockets where they've dropped. But overall, I don't see a 9% decline. The economy is just too strong.


Provided by: 

Esko Kiuru
Mortgage, real estate and apartment industry analyst - syndicated mortgage, housing and property management blog
My cell: 702-499-1006

Comment balloon 5 commentsEsko Kiuru • April 12 2007 07:21PM
Vegas home prices to decline?
Here's a 12-month forecast for housing values in the top 100 U. S. markets as reported by CNN Money McAllen, Texas, leads the way with a predicted gain of 9. 8%, followed by Tulsa and El Paso. Congratulations. On the opposite end of the scale, at… more
Green housing bank.
We have our first commercial bank located in San Francisco, where else, that aims its lending at green businesses. Appropriately it's called the New Resource Bank. The founder believes that sustainability has become an important market player and it… more
First-time home buyer challenge.
It's tough out there for the first-time house buyer right now. The price levels in many areas have moved up far enough to put a crimp on their ability to own a property of their own. Las Vegas valley is one of them. Affordability is definitely an… more
Beat foreclosure with credit counseling.
It's a very difficult situation when a homeowner is faced with a potential foreclosure. There are solutions, but they aren't easy to put into practice. With the subprime woes and the real estate market downturn upon us, there are increasing numbers… more
Vegas high-rise condos seek LEED certification.
LEED stands for Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design. It's a Green Building Rating System designed by the U. S. Green Building Council, a nationally recognized benchmark for the design, construction and operation of high performance green… more
No escrow accounts for subprimes.
More details are trickling in every day. This is getting fascinating. Federal regulators now discover that most subprime loans issued during the last few years had no escrow accounts. Lenders usually require them to guarantee the timely payment of… more
High-rise condominium tower for tomorrow.
Housing is a key sector in the efforts to protect our environment and curb global warming. The new federal building in San Francisco is showing the way how to conserve and still have a fully operational office structure. I don't see why these same… more
Subprime solutions 2.
What can a homeowner who is in imminent mortgage trouble do? The most important step is to contact the lender right away and tell them about the situation. Swallow all the pride he may harbor and just do it. This should be done before any payments… more
Subprime bailout?
All government levels are hesitant at this point to get involved in any meaningful way. Perhaps that's the correct call. In case there was a bailout, how would that shape up? In a full bailout of affected borrowers, the banks would also be rescued… more
Subprime solutions.
I've recently focused on figuring out how did this subprime mess happen and who is to blame. There's always someone who drops the ball. Or someones. Enough of that. Let's see if we can find a workable solution for it. Prominent politicians are… more